Tags: World population increase, Food demand, Sub-Shaharan fertility rate, Food security, Economic growth, Environmental challenges, Fertility rate reductions

Sub-Saharan Africa is the exception to the world fertility trend. Its total fertility rate was 5.4 during the 2005–10 period― double that of any other region―and is projected to decline only to 3.2 by 2050. These expected reductions in fertility rates reflect expectations of increasing urbanization, expected declines in child mortality, and increases in income, among other factors. This total fertility rate trajectory will result in a population increase of 1.2 billion people in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2012 to 2050. This increase will more than double the region’s current population of 0.9 billion to 2.1 billion by 2050, and quadruple it to 3.9 billion by 2100, according to the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA). The region’s projected growth in population will account for half of the planet’s population growth between 2012 and 2050. This projected increase in population poses a food security challenge for the people of Sub-Saharan Africa. The region is already the world’s hungriest. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 27 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa’s people are undernourished, while a study by the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that it is home to 44 percent of the world’s hungry people. The region currently has the world’s lowest crop yields, with cereal yields of 1.5 metric tons per hectare per year―roughly half the world average. Much of the soil has lower carbon content and is depleted of nutrients.

Creating a sustainable food future -achieving_replacement_level_fertility.pdf